Major Winter Storm Takes Aim on the Midwest

Good afternoon everyone! WOW. It has been quite the last week tracking this powerful storm that will be moving in early tomorrow morning. In the next 24 hours, the Kansas City metro will see freezing rain and sleet move in followed by a transition to heavy snow for a few hours. This storm is taking a very unique track, so it has presented challenges for the modeling data– combine this issues with forecasting precipitation types and you have got yourself quite the headache. I believe I have a good feel for what will happen between now and tomorrow, so let’s break it down.

You can see by the red L that our storm is just now crossing into Texas as we speak. The track of this red L is extremely important, for this will determine where the heaviest bands set up. It is very rare that we see a storm this strong dig so far south and that is one of the reasons why the models have had a spread between them. They have come to solution that I believe puts the Kansas City metro area in spot to see a few hours of freezing rain transitioning to sleet, followed by 5-7 hours of snow.

During first 3 hours of 2021, we will see the wall of precipitation move into the metro area from south to north. We will likely see freezing freezing rain followed by some sleet as the atmosphere just above us begins to cool. The reason we are not seeing all snow in this storm is because it is bringing with it a layer of warm air about 1 km above the surface. If this storm were to be all snow, we would have wide spread 8-12 inches of snow.

**Something I want to note– In a few of the short term model runs, I have seen some evidence of evaporative cooling due to the lower levels of the atmosphere needing to saturate. If the models are not picking up on this well, we may have a changeover to snow earlier than expected. If this happens you can add an extra 2-3 inches of snow on our expected totals.**

As the storm surges north and east through Oklahoma and then Missouri, we will see a transition to snow– the questions is, when? Most of the models have the changeover between the hours of 6 and 10 am. If it’s closer to 10 am, less snow. If it’s closer to 6 am, more snow– quite simple actually. I am predicting the changeover to occur between 7 and 9 am from southwest to northeast.

The track and strength of the low should put Kansas City in the position to then see a good 5-7 hours of snow– with rates up to 1-2 hours at times. This will most likely a band of snow that is only 50-70 miles wide; this is another reason why this is so difficult to predict.

Notice while St. Joe is in the heavy snow, areas just a 10 minute drive away have nothing. 10 miles will mean the difference from no snow to five inches of snow in this scenario. When you hear meteorologists say “a dusting-6 inches”, now you see why!

Now the big question? How much ice and how much snow? The specific numbers are very difficult to forecast. I could go through every piece of modeling data that I have access to average all of the numbers together, but that is not true forecasting– that is reading data and presenting it in a fashion that is understandable. In order to forecast, the meteorologist must look at the data, understand it, and interpret it in the way that he or she sees as the most likely outcome. Here is my forecast:

Ice: Most of the data is leading towards a solution that gives the KC metro area about 0.25-0.50 inches of freezing rain– leading to about 0.1-0.25 inches of ice– more southeast (Lee’s Summit) less southwest (KCI Airport). A quarter of an inch of ice is basically the first threshold of the major issues ice can cause, so these needs to be emphasized that ice is still a component to this storm and will cause issues and potentially some power outages.

Snow: I believe that there will be a 50-70 mile swath of 4-8 inches of snow with isolated higher amounts possible. The question is, where does this set up? I believe much of the KC metro, especially the northwest half will be in this band, with the center of this band being near Lawerence to just south of Atchison near the KCI airport. I want to emphasize that there will be a tight gradient of snow totals– meaning that some areas may see an inch or 2 of snow, and some may see upwards of 8 inches.

I think this tells the story well of what is likely to occur. This is an exciting event to witness! A Winter Storm Warning goes into effect with the ringing of the New Year! Everyone stay safe and feel free to comment your questions. Thanks for taking some to read and stay informed.

Jack